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| Delusion & Delay in govt formation | | Jammu & Kashmir | | Col J P Singh, Retd | 1/5/2015 11:32:33 PM |
| Widely split verdict in J&K makes it clear that the
people have voted for a coalition. For the benefit of
readers, PDP got 28 (largest with 25 in the valley), BJP 25 (all in Jammu), NC 15, INC 12, Peoples Conference 2, CPI(M) 1, JKPDF 1 and independents 3 in 87 member Assembly. This result shows deep political, ideological and geographical divide between Jammu and Kashmir. Hence dissensions, delusions, difficulties, disappointments and delays are inherent in this verdict. Top leadership of main parties is in a dilemma.
The choices before all are multiple but daunting. Congress, NC and PDP have political differences among themselves but all have ideological differences with the BJP. Each will want to keep BJP out which means totally alienating Jammu. Thus the delusion and delay in govt formation is obvious. But the signals emerging at the moment are favoring BJP-PDP coalition. Prior results, possibility of PDP govt was high whereas from the day of results its probability became much higher when both Congress and NC offered unconditional support. The 1st option with least compromises for Mufti was to accept Congress support and form the govt (28 + 12 + 4 = 44). But the people verdict is anti Congress. Moreover Congress is a sinking ship. There is not a single Hindu MLA in Congress or PDP. Their earlier rotational coalition had prematurely ended in disaster. Such alliance will be a default coalition. Hence it goes down as the last choice for Mufti.The 2nd option before Mufti is to accept Omar Abdullah's offer and frame a coalition of regional outfits (28 + 15 + others). But in the competitive politics that they both are in, they are not only bitter political rivals but their vote bank is also the same. Then in September last Omar spectacularly failed to show leadership and administrative ability when sudden floods hit Srinagar. Mufti fully exploited the public anger.
Their rivalry is not at the leadership but at the gross root level as well. How to reconcile the family feuds and join hands makes it a difficult choice. Omar's discomfiture is not in his own party doing badly, it is PDP doing badly which means that PDP will have to tie up with Congress or BJP. Both are not to his liking. As per Omar's statement "if Lalu and Nitish can come together why can't Muftis and Abdullahs", is to be taken note of which also means that Modi & Omar can also come together. Omar's prompt offer of support to Mufti smacks of cleverness, if not a trap, to share power with a rival who wants to root out NC from the valley. It also amounts to alienating BJP & Jammu altogether. Such arrangement involves a big risk for Mufti. Hence it becomes the least choice; an option only if all other fall flat. This compels Omar to explore alternative option, if any, if he doesn't want PDP to come to power. 3rd option before Mufti is to explore the possibility of forming a coalition with BJP (28 + 25 = 53). BJP also wants such arrangement. This makes govt stable and strong but a tough bargaining for both. Mufti's conditions of full six years chief ministership, freezing Article 370 and revocation of AFSPA, as coming out in media, makes the bargaining difficult. If BJP compromises on these issues, reciprocally PDP may has to freeze its self rule agenda.
Ideological retreat from their well entrenched positions will be near suicidal for both. Hence BJP may even be looking for a coalition with NC and PDP with Congress as alternate choices, evident from their persistent rhetoric that all options are open. The fact that BJP does not threaten NC in the valley and NC does not threaten BJP in Jammu should be Okay with both to make the govt. But the emphatic nature of victory in Jammu against dynastic and discriminatory rule of Abdullah family makes it difficult for BJP to tie up with NC. But it allows BJP a full term rule and fulfills its ambition of a Hindu Chief Minister. Such arrangement may be workable because it will be a coalition of a regional and a national party as has been happening before. Moreover NC has been part of NDA govt before. But dissension within both parties won't let it happen easily. The possibility does exist. The 4th option before Mufti is to forge a grand alliance with NC, Congress and others which Ghulam Nabi Azad is advocating.
Article 370 which grants special status to J&K; very dear to Kashmir, the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) which gives special powers to the army, the Autonomy; decades old demand of NC and Self Rule; the vision document of PDP have become very contentious issues over the period so far as relations of J&K with Delhi are concerned. Moreover Kashmir is an issue between India and Pakistan over which four wars have been fought. If BJP and any of the two regional parties NC/PDP make compromises on these issues, govt formation will become easy even though it will be termed as political opportunism. Without compromising on these issues it is highly impossible for the BJP and PDP / NC to come together. Besides the hopelessly split verdict, these contentious issues are causing dissensions and delay in taking a decision by two main beneficiary of the mandate despite feeling the compulsion to have a coalition.
In the Parliamentary election, BJP had won Jammu and Ladakh seats. But now in Kashmir and Ladakh BJP is totally bankrupt despite Modi campaigning. Ladakhis returned back to the Congress fold which won three out of four seats. In Jammu where it had won both Parliament seats, won 25 out of 37. Therefore to be a legal claimant to power because of 25 seats in Jammu will be untenable. Hence it will be give and take with PDP. There is a rider for Mufti Saheb also. It is Omar Abdhulla's inefficiency that has paid him off and not entirely his own popularity. Hence BJP or Congress. For BJP, he has to carry his flock with him. Since present day politicians are power hungry, dissension in PDP is less likely. BJP is drawing the flak on diluting its stand on Article 370. It is being maligned of double standards by the opposition. Same is true of PDP in the valley.
PDP can't remain out of power being the largest. Even if nothing works out the Governor will have to invite PDP to form the govt and prove its majority after few days. To prevent unstable coalition in such case both parties are doing their best to forge an alliance. In Kashmir people have voted for PDP and in Jammu they have voted for BJP. This shows that people of Jammu want BJP govt whereas people in the Valley want PDP govt. Split verdict suggests that neither BJP nor the PDP should be out of power. How do both reconcile to this contradiction is their litmus test. After all politics is the art of managing contradictions. People, for a change, may still accept an alliance between two largest ideological rivals if it assures good governance & development. This is what people want from the new govt. Indira-Sheikh Accord of 1974 is an example of great reconciliation in J&K and Lalu-Nitish coalition is similar example of a great compromise in Bihar. Hence there is no reason why PDP and BJP cannot have an alliance. By setting aside their ideological differences Modi-Mufti embrace will be another example of great political reconciliation in J&K. It will not be a coalition merely for the govt formation and power sharing but it will be an exemplary reconciliation between the regions and the communities. The split verdict has offered an opportunity to Mufti and Modi to show great statesmanship. Wisdom must prevail over partisan considerations. Post-poll alliances do not necessarily need any ideological cohesion. These can work on a common minimum programme. There are no permanent friends or foes in politics. BJP is the most relevant factor in J& K because this time it has proved to be the sole representative of Jammu region which deserves a place in the govt. In terms of vote share, it is the largest party with 23 % against 22.7 of the PDP. No govt will be stable with unrepresented Jammu and a hostile BJP govt in Delhi. A similar situation was witnessed in Pakistan in 1970 when determined East Pakistanis voted enbloc for Awami League.
West Pakistanis tried to suppress that mandate which led to the break away of Eastern Wing. Mufti Saheb is a seasoned statesman and I am sure he knows ground realities.
He will try to keep BJP and Delhi on his right side. An arrangement of rotational CM will provide a balanced representation to both the regions. I expect Modi govt to win over the hearts of Kashmiris by liberal grants for development. Political fog persists but it devolves upon political leadership to soon give a stable govt to the people of J&K as New Year gift. |
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