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| PDP to inflate its poll victory balloon from Jammu region | | |
After having ensured that its vote bank
remains intact in the Kashmir valley the
PDP plans to register its presence in a big way in the region of Jammu during the ensuing Assembly election.That its vote bank has registered significant improvement was evident when the PDP candidates were in the lead in 41 out of 46 Assembly segments in the Kashmir valley which helped the party to win all the three Lok Sabha seats in May last.Hold on people in the valley and poor performance of the NC-Congress coalition Government during the last over five years had helped the PDP to trounce the National Conference in the Lok Sabha election. The PDP leadership believes that the party's aim of winning a simple majority,which could allow it to run the Government on its own and without sharing power with the Congress,depends on its performance in the Jammu region which has 37 seats.In 2008 the party had won two seats from the region but during the last over five years it has strengthened its position by making inroads in areas which used to be pockets of influence of either the National Conference or the Congress.This was one factor that had motivated a number of senior Congress and NC leaders to join the PDP.And with influential leaders,including Mangat Ram Sharma,Vikramaditya,son of Dr Karan Singh and and number of Gujjar leaders,already in the PDP camp the Muftis plan to win anything between five and 10 seats in the region of Jammu.If the PDP is able to win upto 10 seats from the Jammu region it will have no problem in achieving the +44 mission.
Besides the PDP , BJP too wants to make it big in the upcoming Assembly election.Yes,notwithstanding factionalism,the BJP has moved from strength to strength which is evident from the 2008 Assembly election results.In 2008 it won 11 seats against one in 2002.And in 2104 Lok Sabha election it won all the three seats from the regions of Jammu and Ladakh.If its vote share during the Lok Sabha poll in the Jammu region is any guide the BJP is placed in a favourable position.But its poor vote bank in the Kashmir valley may cast a shadow on its ultimate performance in the sense that it may not be in a position to achieve the +44 mission.Well nothing is impossible in the election.But the situation in the Kashmir valley cannot be equated with the political situation and the mood of people in Haryana.In Haryana the BJP achieved its +47 mission to form the first ever Government in the state.It could happen because people wanted to vote for change.It could happen because voters wanted to teach a lesson to the Congress and to the Chief Minister,Bhupendra Singh Hooda.But the peoples' mood in Kashmir may be against NC-Congress coalition rule.The Kashmiris' may be nursing anger against Omar Abdullah and his National Conference.But they seem to have an alternative in the shape of PDP which has emerged as the second single largest party in the Assembly election in 2008 when it had won 21 seats against 28 by the National Conference.
Hence if majority of voters find the PDP is a safe bet for giving vent to their anger against the NC and the Congress in the valley the BJP may have to bank on whatever success it achieves in the region of Jammu,which has remained its stronghold.Yes,by temperament Kashmiris wear varied moods.If they are in a mood to support the BJP,which hitherto had been treated like an untouchable,the saffron brigade may not be far away from reaching its goal of winning 44 seats.But the BJP's task in framing its presence felt in a big way in the Kashmir valley is tougher than doing it in the region of Jammu where it had won all the two Lok Sabha seats.First of all the BJP has to find suitable candidates in the Kashmir valley where it has decided to contest all the 46 seats.Even if it is able to find the candidates who get the mandate for contesting the election will they be allowed to carry out their pre-poll campaign ?Assuming that the National Conference and the Congress may achieve a limited success it may mean that the NC may get lesser number of seats that it won in 2002 and 2008 election,both times it had won 28 seats,and so is the case with the Congress which had won 17 seats in 2008 election and 20 in 2002 poll. This way the main party to benefit from the losses of the Congress and the NC could be the PDP in the Kashmir valley and the BJP in the region of Jammu provided the sangh parivaar remained free from factional feuds. |
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