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| Modi wave sweeps Jammu but fails to enter into Kashmir | | | Early Times Report
JAMMU, Dec 23: The Modi wave,which had been witnessed during the May last Lok Sabha poll in the country and during the Maharashtra and Haryana Assembly election in November had not crossed the lofty Pir Panjal mountain range to enter into the Kashmir valley. This is indicated by the way the BJP failed to win a single seat from the valley. Yes, one can say that the Modi wave had trickled into Kashmir province as the vote share of the BJP candidates had considerably increased from the vote share the BJP candidates had got in 2002 and 2008 Assembly elections. However, the BJP completely trounced the Congress from the region of Jammu where the Modi wave had remained in tact after it gave the BJP victory in three Lok Sabha constituencies in the regions of Ladakh and Jammu.
It is not for the first time that the BJP wave has had no impact on the psyche of people of Kashmir. The erstwhile Janata Party, of which the Jana Sangh was a major constituent, too had failed to flutter its flag in the Kashmir valley when in 1977 Lok Sabha election it had dethroned the Congress led by the redoubtable Indira Gandhi. At that stage apart from the Lok Sabha election the Assembly election was being held in the state of Jammu and Kashmir. The Assembly poll had been warranted by the withdrawal of support to Sheikh Abdullah led Government by the Congress which two years ago had supported the Sheikh to form the Government after the culmination of Sheikh-Indira Accord of 1974-75. In the final analysis the Janata Party had won only two seats from the Kashmir valley. One was bagged by Abdul Gani Lone from Handwara and the other by Abdul Rashid Kabli from Idgah in Srinagar.
In 2002 Assembly election the BJP had fielded 26 candidates in the Kashmir valley and none had won any seat. The total vote share of these candidates was a dismal less than two per cent. In 2008 Election the BJP had fielded 64 candidates in the entire state and had won 11 seats against one in 2002 poll.
But this time the BJP surpassed the record set by the then Janata Party in 1977 when it had won 13 seats from the entire state. In fact the major victory of the BJP from the region of Jammu has been on the ashes of the Congress which, right from 2002 election has won more seats from Jammu than from the Kashmir valley. In 2002 election the Congress had won 20 seats and in 2008 it had bagged 17 seats. This had enabled the Congress to play its role in Government making. It formed the Government in alliance with the PDP in 2002 and with the National Conference in 2008. However, this time the Congress has performed poorly as it has won 12 seats and it is upto the PDP if it opts for an alliance with the Congress or with the BJP. This time it is not upto the Congress to decide which side it should forge an alliance for sharing power.
If the PDP has been the main gainer from the Kashmir valley it has done so on the ashes of the National Conference. The National Conference had won 27 seats in the state in 2002 election and 28 seats in 2008 poll. And if the BJP has set a new record of winning 25 seats, all from the region of Jammu, it has been able to do so on ashes of the Congress which invariably used to win more than 14 seats from the Jammu region.
Expectedly the Assembly election has thrown up a hung House. In 2002 and 2008 voters had voted for a hung Assembly which had resulted in the formation of a coalition Government. During the previous elections the PDP had won 16 seats in 2002 and 21 seats in 2008 elections which included two seats from the region of Jammu in 2008. This time it has trounced both the National Conference and the Congress in the Kashmir valley which has 46 Assembly constituencies by 28 seats, including three from the region of Jammu.
In fact the BJP had banked on poor polling percentage in the valley in the wake of repeated poll boycott calls from the separatists on the assumption that votes from the Kashmiri Pandit community could prove decisive for the BJP in three to four constituencies in the valley. This assumption proved wrong. Except for some seats in Srinagar district most of the Assembly segments in the Kashmir valley recorded over 70 per cent polling which had drastically reduced the significance of the Kashmiri Pandit migrant votes. In addition to this Kashmiri Pandit voters did not show any keen interest in casting their votes which is evident from the reports indicating that less than 50 per cent migrants cast their votes. This way the chances of some BJP candidates, contesting from the Kashmir valley, for a win had become remote.
Leader of separatists Hurriyat Conference (G), Syed Ali Shah Geelani, has admitted, soon after the phase I polling, that he and his colleagues had taken no step in enforcing their poll boycott call because they wanted the valley to register very high polling percentage which could force the BJP to draw a blank from the valley. And this is what had happened. Whether high polling percentage was a tale of grapes are sour for Geelani and others in the camp of separatists is a different story. But their writ on poll boycott was not responded by people in the valley. And the voters in the Jammu region too viewed separatists' machinations in motivating people to vote freely to defeat BJP in Kashmir that Jammuites outclassed the valley voting percentage by recording about 75 per cent polling which gave clear mandate in favour of the BJP candidates.
Virtually the major win for the PDP from the valley and for the BJP from the region of Jammu was on the pattern that had been witnessed during the May last Lok Sabha elections in which the PDP had bagged all three Lok Sabha seats from the valley and the BJP having won all the two Lok Sabha seats from the region of Jammu with one bonus seat from Ladakh. This time the BJP drew a blank from Ladakh which has four Assembly constituencies. Possibly people in Ladakh had not cherished BJP's silence on Union Territory status for Ladakh as it had touched this issue during pre-Lok Sabha election campaign. The National Conference should have measured peoples' anger against it when even the tallest political figures, Dr Farooq Abdullah, had lost the Lok Sabha election from Srinagar constituency. Yes, Omar Abdullah is believed to have gauged the extent of peoples' anger which led him to change his ancestral Ganbderbal constituency and decided to contest from two seats, Sonawar and Beerwah. Despite his change of strategy he lost the Sonawar seat but won the Beerwah seat by a margin of 900 votes which clearly indicates the level of anger of people against him.
As a person Omar is straightforward and nice but as a politician he has proved a failure. It is so because he banked on a couple of party light weights whom he had appointed as his advisers at one time. The result was he had no direct contact with people, with party workers and there was also lack of coordination between him and his ministerial colleagues.
Voters in Jammu and Kashmir seem to have made up their mind to vote for the PDP in the valley and for the BJP in Jammu. And this mind had been made during the Lok Sabha election in which both the Congress and the National Conference had drawn a blank. During the Lok Sabha election people nursed anger against the NC-Congress coalition Government which had been responsible for poor or bad governance. People had come to realize that level of corruption and mis-rule during the last six years had touched a new high. They were annoyed over the way the NC-Congress coalition rule failed to implement its policy on tackling the problem of unemployment. Besides this employees and the Government remained at logger heads.
And during the Assembly election mishandling of the situation during the flash floods, that left 300 people dead and caused devastation on a massive scale had added to the level of anger and anguish among people against the Government. This way if the Congress and the National Conference performed badly it was the result of anti-incumbency factor weighing heavy against them. Right from day one the state unit of the Congress has remained a divided house. The party unit was divided among workers loyal of the PCC chief, Saif-ud-Din Soz and those owing allegiance to Ghulam Nabi Azad. Both of them have been rejected by people, rather voters. While Salman Soz, son of Saif-ud-Din Soz lost from Baramulla and wherever Azad campaigned in areas considered to be his stronghold the Congress lost a number of seats from Kishtwar-Bhaderwah and Doda segments. Not only this several ministers in the council of ministers led by Omar Abdullah have lost the poll battle. Among the losers are Deputy Chief Minister, Tara Chand, Health Minister, Taj Mohiuddin, PWD Minister, Abdul Majid Wani, PHE Minister, Sham Lal Sharma, Horticulture Minister, Raman Bhalla Planning Minister, Ajay Sadhotra and Minister of state for Home, Sajjad Kichloo. |
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