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| From 44 plus to 50, no stopping BJP march in J&K elections? | | | Early Times Report
Jammu, Nov 11 : As the BJP changes its plan 44 plus to 50 in State Assembly elections most of its rival parties are left bewildered. Many political rivals of the BJP argue in public that to set its target at 50 seats is only to ensure that the BJP gets at least half this number.
Yet, many political observers and political strategists serious view the revision in the BJP J&K poll strategy. Already there has been confirmation of a team of hitech professionals and opinion surveyors who have been deputed by BJP President Amit Shah for analysis and advice.
This team of political analysts have been with the BJP President who was assisted by them in Haryana and Maharashtra elections. The results in those states speak volumes about the efficacy of Amit Shah's team.
There is little doubt in anybody's mind that the BJP stands at a huge advantage in the Jammu Province that has 37 seats in the State Assembly. These seats are spread in the ten districts of Jammu Province where Modi wave or Modi factor whatever one calls it is still visible on ground.
In the Ladakh region there is a good probability for the BJP to open its account in the Assembly as it has won the Lok Sabha seat from there though with a very little margin.
Traditionally, the Ladakh region has always looked at the government at the centre for its problems and political aspirations.
Politically also, the Ladakh region is closer to New Delhi than to either Srinagar or Jammu. It is, therefore, quite possible that the BJP would get two or at least one seat from that region of the State as well.
After resting assured about getting the major chunk of seats from the Jammu region, the BJP focus now lies directly on the Valley that has 46 seats in the Assembly.
Whether or not the BJP is able to get at least three seats from the Valley would determine who forms the next government in Jammu and Kashmir.
And, if the BJP is able is cross the figure of 35 or even slightly less than that, there is no doubt J&K would have a Hindu Chief Minister in 2015.
How does the BJP achieve its objective of installing a Hindu Chief Minister in the State depends largely on which permutations and combinations is the party able to work out after the elections and during these.
There is a big advantage that the BJP has in these elections. That is the image of the Prime Minister, Narendra Modi which is overarching and has far reaching political consequence on J&K. There appears to be nothing that can stop the BJP march to realize its plan. At least not as the present political battlelines suggest. |
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