Masood Malik
Early Times Report
JAMMU, Dec 1: People of Gulabgarh, Reasi, Gool Arnas, Udhampur, Chenani, Ramnagar, Surnkote, Mendhar and Poonch Haveli assembly segments in Jammu province and people of Karnah, Kupwara, Lolab, Handwara, Langate, Noorabad, Kulgam, Home -Shalibugh and Devsar assembly constituencies in Kashmir will go to the polls tomorrow. The poll outcome of the second phase of the assembly elections will determine the fate of the BJP, which is contesting most of these seats in Kashmir and Jammu.
As far as the nine assembly constituencies of Karnah, Kupwara, Lolab, Handwara, Langate, Noorabad, Kulgam, Home-Shalibugh and Devsar in Kashmir are concerned, the BJP has no chance, as there are almost hundred per cent Muslim. The BJP has never won any seat in Kashmir till date because the majority community considers the BJP a Hindu party which is not case. The BJP is as secular as any other political party in the country and ongoing party's campaign is a proof. These are the constituencies where mass mobilization has been on a massive scale and all the political players who are in the fray in these constituencies, including Sajjad Lone of People's Conference, have expressed themselves in favour of Article 370. In other words, they have not left any space for the BJP in any of these constituencies, extensive BJP campaigning and its "dubious' stand on Article 370 notwithstanding.
Ironically, things also do not appear really promising in any of the nine assembly constituencies of Gulabgarh, Reasi, Gool Arnas, Udhampur, Chenani, Ramnagar, Surnkote, Mendhar and Poonch Haveli assembly in Jammu province. Gulabgarh, Gool Arnas, Ramnagar, Surnkote, Mendhar and Poonch Haveli are the constituencies where the BJP is not standing on a strong wicket. These are the constituencies the BJP never represented in the assembly. However, Ramnagar is the single constituency out of these six constituencies where the BJP candidate R S Pathania could be in the contest not because he is popular but because the Modi factor might help him. The BJP candidate is actually a staunch supporter of Congress leader Ghulam Nabi Azad. He joined the BJP only recently and was given the party mandate. It cannot be said that the contest is very easy. It is not.
The BJP candidate Pathania is facing a two-time sitting MLA Harshdev Singh, who is not that unpopular. His role in the assembly was always better as compared to the BJP law-makers whose presence the ruling coalition never felt in the assembly. In the remaining five constituencies of Gulabgarh, Gool Arnas, Surnkote, Mendhar and Poonch Haveli, the BJP has little or no chance. It might get good number of votes, but would fail to win any of these seats. Chenani perhaps is the only seat which the BJP is likely to win because the party has fielded a good and non-controversial candidate there. The one factor that could help the BJP candidate in Chenani is that the party workers are united and working for his success. Besides, the Modi factor is very much there. The BJP has represented the Chenani constituency in the assembly between 1996 and 2002. Udhampur and Reasi were the two assembly constituencies which were considered safe for the BJP, but the open revolts in both the constituencies against the official candidates have created a very difficult situation for the party. Sitting MLA Baldev Raj Sharma and popular local leader Pawan Gupta, who, like Baldev Raj Sharma, was also thrown out of the party for anti-party activities, are contesting as independent candidates. They may not win but they can mar the victory chances of the BJP's official candidates. |
